Understanding the Surprising Defeat of the People’s Party

2026-02-09 - 06:36

It was shortly after 8 p.m. on Sunday, the night of the snap election, and some results were starting to come in when I interviewed two MP candidates from the People’s Party (PP). They were still confident that their party would win big, something like 170 to 200 seats. They could not have been more wrong. The party, previously known as the Move Forward Party, won 151 seats in Thailand’s 2023 general election, making it the country’s largest. This time, as I type these words around noon the following day, results from 94 percent of ballots counted show the PP winning only about 110 seats, while its main rival, the Bhumjaithai Party, is set to take just south of 200, up from 71 seats less than three years ago. Here are seven lessons from the People’s Party’s defeat: 1) Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and the People’s Party were the ones who gave Anutin and the Bhumjaithai Party their wings in the first place, by voting to prop up Anutin last September — a windfall that unexpectedly fell straight into Anutin’s lap. This allowed Anutin to attract more than 60 MPs, reshuffle director-generals across key departments, and appoint several provincial governors, fully paving the way for the snap election. Meanwhile, Natthapong spoke with a mix of naïveté and arrogance back in September, saying he and his party “did not vote for Anutin to run the country,” but to push for a charter amendment and call a snap election after four months. Natthaphong has never apologised for voting for Anutin. Instead, he insisted this time that he would not vote for Anutin as prime minister — far too late. Those who created the “Frankenstein”, or injected steroids into Anutin and Bhumjaithai, were Natthaphong and the People’s Party themselves. 2) The party has a “special talent” for turning friends into foes (see Chuwit Kamolvisit, who once ardently supported Pita and the party) and for falling out with former MPs who leave; it also has a habit of burning its own house down (see, for example, former MP Thisana Choonhavan). 3) The party played a role in fanning ultranationalism by trying to ride the Thai–Cambodian nationalist wave, but it could not outdo Anutin. 4) It no longer has sharp, emotionally resonant issues such as the lese majeste law reform or opposing military rule to mobilise voters during campaigns. 5) The orange–red split has fractured badly. They burned all the bridges. Hardcore supporters attack each other around the clock, with no room for reconciliation, unable to see any shared strategy and potential alliances. This has weakened and divided the so-called “pro-democracy camp”, causing it to undermine itself. 6) Hardcore supporters have trapped the orange camp in an echo chamber, viewing everything through rose-tinted lenses and believing only their party is righteous. They claim a monopoly on political legitimacy, alienating outsiders and losing touch with reality. Senator Angkhana Neelapajit summed it up succinctly in her Facebook post this morning: “Before the election, there was never any humility. Anyone who criticised them was immediately attacked. They thought that simply because they were the “new generation”, their opinions must be superior. They did not listen and could not be questioned, to the point that no one wanted to warn or advise them anymore. “After the election, once the results were known, they looked down on and insulted people in the provinces who did not vote for them, calling them stupid and accusing them of not understanding the political system — claiming that MPs are only responsible for proposing and scrutinising laws, not for listening to people’s problems. “In reality, anyone who has sat on a parliamentary committee reviewing legislation knows full well how many MPs actually understand the issues, do their homework, have sound reasoning, and are brave enough to defend or challenge the wording of laws for the public interest. As is plainly visible, many simply sit there, listen, and raise their hands to vote.” 7) Even though the People’s Party won every constituency seat in Bangkok, this only highlights the widening ideological gap between the capital and the provinces — a growing, persistent divide rooted in unequal opportunities, living conditions and a patronage-based culture in rural areas versus an atomised lifestyle in Bangkok. Final Note: As for Bhumjaithai Party and Anutin, they are definitely the biggest beneficiaries of the shortsighted decisions by Natthaphong and his party to support Anutin as PM back in September. Anutin and BJT are also the biggest winners from his government’s hawkish stance toward Cambodia during the two undeclared wars which are now in a state of uneasy and fragile ceasefire. In the end, Anutin whom the People’s Party voted back in September to become an ‘interim PM’ seized the opportunity to grow and attract over 60 MPs to join his Bhumjaithai Party. It was Natthaphong and the People’s Party who created the hulking conservative force we see today. Bhumjaithai Party has emerged from a provincial-midsized party into the new dominant royalist pro-military conservative party. But more of that in the next column. #Thailand #PeoplesParty #Natthapong #Election2026