T he GBC talks scheduled beteeen Thailand and Cambodia for tomorrow (24 Dec), in Thailand’s Chanthaburi province, include the possibility of a ceasefire. I hope both sides will show restraint and be as flexible as possible, because foot soldiers and civilians living along the border on both sides of the border are the ones who suffer the most if the war prolonged.
Even before the second round of the war this month, Thai hyper-nationalists had already predicted on social media that if anything happened, since they do not trust ASEAN Chair and Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim to be impartial, they would wait instead for the Philippines to become ASEAN chair on 1 January 2026 (or in 9 days from now).
Some Filipinos are not too happy with Cambodia because whenever the Philippines tries to push the issue of its territorial disputes with China in South China Sea within ASEAN, Cambodia often sides with and defends China due to its close ties with Beijing, limiting what the Philippines can do at the ASEAN level on this issue.
In addition, at yesterday’s meeting in Kuala Lumpur, it was clear that both the United States and China were trying to play a role in pressing for a ceasefire. On another level, this reflects competition between the world’s two superpowers for influence in the ASEAN region, and especially in Cambodia and Thailand.
In the first round of the war, a ceasefire was reached after Donald Trump flew in to jointly sign as a witness to the ceasefire agreement in KL, Malaysia. This was seen as a surprise move that undercut China, which has close ties with Cambodia, or which some observers see as being in a quasi–Chinese client-state. Cambodia was so appreciative that Prime Minister Hun Manet proposed Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, and the government announced plans to rename a street after Trump in his honour. (President Xi Jinping had already received such recognition in 2024, when a major section of the Third Ring Road was named Xi Jinping Boulevard.)
We don’t do that here in Thailand. Most major roads are named after Thai kings with an exception of a very few politicians or statesmen.
At the same time, although Thailand used both U.S.-made and Swedish-made fighter jets to strike targets in Cambodia, Cambodian citizens during the first round of the border war in July criticized only Sweden for selling military aircrafts to Thailand but did not attack the United States. This can be seen as selective and strategic criticism.
Some Cambodians were already unhappy with Sweden because Sweden closed its embassy in Phnom Penh in late 2024, citing severe restrictions of democratic space and deteriorating human rights situations.
As for Thailand, in addition to PM Anutin Charnvirakul having resisted pressure from US President Donald Trump twice, after the second round of the war—which is now entering the 16th day—yesterday we also saw Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow criticize the US role in the signing of the ceasefire agreement in Kuala Lumpur, saying perhaps one factor behind the eventual failure to achieve a lasting ceasefire, was because Thailand was “rushed.” At present, it can be concluded that the United States has lost a fair amount of soft power or goodwill among hyper-nationalist or ultra-nationalist Thais, while the US has been gaining ground against China in Cambodia.
China, meanwhile, has been especially cautious, especially after the Chinese envoy in Phnom Penh appeared to openly side with Cambodia during the first round of the war. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly adjusted its stance following strong backlash from Thai public opinion. Regarding Chinese weapons reportedly seized by Thai soldiers in this round of fighting, China was quick to deny that they were newly supplied weapons.
And although yesterday the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated that China is actively trying to mediate a ceasefire between both sides, it remains unclear how this conflict between Thailand and Cambodia will ultimately affect relations with China and perceptions of China in both Thailand and Cambodia.
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The post On Anwar, the Philippines, Sweden, and the Roles of the U.S. and China in the Thailand–Cambodia War appeared first on Khaosod English.
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