E xiled Cambodian opposition leader Sam Rainsy posted a question this morning: “What did Cambodia gain after Hun Sen released the Hun Sen–Paetongtarn audio clip?”
A source of mine in Cambodia, who asked not to be named, told me a few days ago that Hun Sen expected that after Paetongtarn was removed from the prime minister’s post, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha would replace her, because Hun Sen has a good relationship with Prayut. But in the end, the situation flipped — the main opposition People’s Party unexpectedly handed the position to Anutin, who took a very hardline stance against Cambodia instead.
Meanwhile, the Thai military seized the opportunity to expand its role and rebrand itself as a protector of ‘national sovereignty’, instead of a coup-prone army led by rogue generals fond of military adventures in politics. The Thai army relentlessly attacked and pressured Cambodia during this second war until Cambodia appealed to the international community, accusing Thailand of being the “aggressor”.
Anutin then racked up waves of ultra-nationalist popularity.
It must be noted that many Thais were taught from childhood at school about Westen imperial powers taking away lands under Siamese control over a century which includes today’s Cambodia and they were delighted to see Anutin saying no to US President Donald Trump’s presure to quickly return to a ceasefire.
However, yesterday afternoon Anutin had to publicly deny for the second time that he was exploiting the situation and engaging in what might best be described as a ‘war for votes’, stating: “[The war] has nothing to do with the election.”
As for Sam Rainsy’s question, it is clear that Hun Sen betrayed the Shinawatra family (though it remains unclear if the Shinawatra family quietly betrayed the Hun family first) by releasing the clip. At the time, he even boasted that there would be a change of Thailand’s prime minister in the near future.
Today, deep down, Hun Sen may actually regret having sabotaged Paetongtarn; as the English proverb goes: “Beware of what you wish for.”
P.S. Anutin told the media yesterday that most of the [disputed areas] have been “reclaimed.”
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