Election scenarios, constitution referendum and some caveats

2026-01-29 - 11:41

While it would be prudent to prevaricate when asked who will emerge as Thailand’s 33rd prime minister after the 8 February general election due to the fickle nature of many Thai voters and the fact that there’s still nearly 10 days to go before the election, several Thai political pundits and even Bangkok-based foreign observers whom I have spoken to over the past few days are gravitating towards a coalition between the Bhumjaithai Party and the Pheu Thai Party, with incumbent Anutin Charnvirakul returning as PM. The Scenarios: The Bhumjaithai Party has managed to attract some sixty political defectors over the past few months since Anutin unexpectedly became PM following the surprise vote of support from the main opposition People’s Party. The party has since emerged as the favourite and most pragmatic choice for conservative voters and the deep state, with Democrat Party leader and PM candidate Abhisit Vejjajiva the only distant rival from the conservative royalist camp. Even if the Pheu Thai Party were to pull off a miracle and win more votes than the Bhumjaithai Party, it may still have to settle for Anutin as PM because its de facto leader, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, remains an inmate at Klong Prem Prison — effectively a hostage and bargaining chip for the deep state. A highly placed senior source within the Pheu Thai Party told me on Monday that the deep state is likely to compel the party to form a coalition with BJT, although he personally prefers a coalition with the People’s Party. In the second scenario, the People’s Party (PP) wins big with over 200 seats and tries to form a PP-led coalition government. Under this scenario, the axe may fall on PM candidate and People’s Party leader Natthapong Ruengpanyawut, along with 43 other senior and mid-level party members and MPs who face potential lifetime bans from holding political office as a result of their involvement in a 2021 petition to amend the controversial lèse-majesté law, which prohibits defaming, insulting, or threatening the King, Queen, Heir-apparent, or Regent. The case is currently with the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), which is reviewing allegations that these MPs committed “serious ethical violations” by attempting to amend the draconian and anachronistic law — an effort the Constitutional Court ruled amounted to an attempt to undermine the monarchy. Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, one of the party’s so-called “spiritual leaders”, once said, however, that the People’s Party seeks to bring about political change and that does not necessarily require holding government power. Now, imagine the anger of PP supporters if the party wins the most seats and yet fails to form the government anew. Imagine the explosion of political angst and what it may mean for the future of Thai politics. It may very well be the change, or revolution, that Thanathorn has been waiting for. The Junta-Sponsored 2017 Constitution and the Referendum: On 8 February, voters will also decide the fate of the junta-sponsored constitution — whether to rewrite it or not, through a separate “yes or “no” on a separate ballot. This should be a no-brainer choice for those who support democracy. The junta-sponsored charter was passed under duress in a nationwide referendum where the threat was that if not approved, Prayut might remain in power indefinitely as a dictator. Some who campaigned against it were also arrested, including the current deputy leader of the People’s Party, Rangsiman Rome, who at the time was still a young activist. This is thus a retroactive rejection of Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha as a coup maker and dictator. Voting in favour of drafting a new constitution is a slap in the face — a punishment for Prayut for daring to seize the people’s power in 2014. Divide and Rule: As the final week before the election approaches, some voters and politicians are attacking one another verbally and viciously. The bad blood between the Red versus the Orange camp is all too apparent. The split between the Red and the Orange camps — with no visible bridge left to mend — is a success, even a victory, for the conservative side.